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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.98%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 20.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 0-1 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
57.98% ( 0.01) | 21.98% ( -0) | 20.04% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 55.1% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.74% ( 0) | 43.26% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.34% ( 0) | 65.65% ( -0) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.35% ( 0) | 14.64% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.22% ( 0) | 42.77% ( -0) |
Bristol Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.56% ( -0) | 35.44% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.79% ( -0) | 72.2% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
1-0 @ 9.97% 2-1 @ 9.94% 2-0 @ 9.58% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.36% 3-0 @ 6.13% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.3% 4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.95% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.59% 5-1 @ 1.17% 5-0 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.81% Total : 57.98% | 1-1 @ 10.34% 0-0 @ 5.19% 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.98% | 0-1 @ 5.38% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.36% 0-2 @ 2.79% 1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 20.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |