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Port Vale
League One | Gameweek 44
Apr 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
Vale Park
Exeter City

Port Vale
2 - 4
Exeter

Chislett (31'), Dipepa (40')
Sang (28')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Alli (57', 89'), Jules (67'), Harris (79')
Alli (7'), Watts (35'), Purrington (41'), Harris (47')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Port Vale and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Peterborough 3-0 Port Vale
Wednesday, April 10 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 2-2 Exeter
Tuesday, April 9 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Port Vale 1-1 Exeter City

Port Vale will be targeting three points to boost their survival chances, but we think that the Valiants will have to settle for a draw, with Exeter currently enjoying a seven-game unbeaten run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.

Result
Port ValeDrawExeter City
37.44% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03) 25.43% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 37.12% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Both teams to score 56.21% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.34% (0.026000000000003 0.03)47.65% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.15% (0.023 0.02)69.85% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.06% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)24.94% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.43% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)59.57% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.88% (0.031000000000006 0.03)25.12% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.18% (0.042999999999999 0.04)59.82% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 37.44%
    Exeter City 37.12%
    Draw 25.43%
Port ValeDrawExeter City
1-0 @ 8.7% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 6.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.8% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.34% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 37.44%
1-1 @ 12.01% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.26% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.77% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.23% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.43%
0-1 @ 8.65% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 8.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.98% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 3.82% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.75% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.32% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 0.95% (0.002 0)
2-4 @ 0.92% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 37.12%

How you voted: Port Vale vs Exeter

Port Vale
66.7%
Draw
8.3%
Exeter City
25.0%
12
Head to Head
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 21
Exeter
0-1
Port Vale

Aimson (72'), Scott (84')
Aimson (90+1')
Arblaster (29')
Grant (54'), Debrah (85')
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Nov 5, 2022 3pm
First Round
Port Vale
2-3
Exeter
Politic (25'), Butterworth (87')
Brown (43', 66'), Collins (89')
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Exeter
4-0
Port Vale
Kite (24'), Brown (38' pen., 72'), Nombe (75')
Diabate (30'), Sweeney (35')
May 7, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 46
Exeter
0-1
Port Vale

Stubbs (45+3')
Wilson (36')
Martin (43'), Wilson (45+1'), Stone (84')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148


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