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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 50.99%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 22.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Gillingham |
50.99% ( 0.43) | 26.05% ( 0.03) | 22.96% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 46.69% ( -0.57) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.6% ( -0.49) | 56.4% ( 0.49) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.58% ( -0.4) | 77.41% ( 0.4) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.81% ( -0.02) | 22.19% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.4% ( -0.03) | 55.6% ( 0.03) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60% ( -0.72) | 40% ( 0.71) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.35% ( -0.66) | 76.65% ( 0.66) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Gillingham |
1-0 @ 13.36% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( -0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 50.98% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.71% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.35% Total : 22.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 58 |
2 | Notts County | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 47 |
3 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 47 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 47 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 46 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 45 |
7 | Port Vale | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 45 |
8 | Salford City | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 43 |
9 | Chesterfield | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 31 | 12 | 39 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 39 |
11 | MK Dons | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 38 |
12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 36 |
13 | Bromley | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 35 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 35 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
16 | Swindon TownSwindon | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 34 |
17 | Gillingham | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 32 |
18 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 31 |
19 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 29 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 29 |
21 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 27 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 26 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 21 |
24 | Morecambe | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
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