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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 45.09%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
Result | ||
Harrogate Town | Draw | Morecambe |
29.94% ( 0.01) | 24.98% ( -0.08) | 45.09% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 55.72% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.61% ( 0.35) | 47.39% ( -0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.39% ( 0.32) | 69.61% ( -0.32) |
Harrogate Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.58% ( 0.19) | 29.42% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.58% ( 0.23) | 65.42% ( -0.23) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.95% ( 0.17) | 21.06% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.14% ( 0.27) | 53.86% ( -0.27) |
Score Analysis |
Harrogate Town | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 29.94% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.97% | 0-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.52% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.78% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 45.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 58 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 46 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 46 |
4 | Port Vale | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 45 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 44 |
6 | Notts County | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 44 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 44 |
8 | Salford City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 42 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 27 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 38 |
10 | Chesterfield | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 36 |
11 | Bromley | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 35 |
12 | MK Dons | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 35 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 34 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 33 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 31 |
17 | Gillingham | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 31 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 31 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 29 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 28 |
21 | Newport CountyNewport | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 26 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 26 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 21 |
24 | Morecambe | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 20 |
> League Two Full Table |