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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 45.09%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
Result | ||
Harrogate Town | Draw | Morecambe |
29.94% ( 0.01) | 24.98% ( -0.08) | 45.09% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 55.72% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.61% ( 0.35) | 47.39% ( -0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.39% ( 0.32) | 69.61% ( -0.32) |
Harrogate Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.58% ( 0.19) | 29.42% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.58% ( 0.23) | 65.42% ( -0.23) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.95% ( 0.17) | 21.06% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.14% ( 0.27) | 53.86% ( -0.27) |
Score Analysis |
Harrogate Town | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 29.94% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.97% | 0-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.52% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.78% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 45.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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