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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.27%) and 1-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Northampton Town |
29.47% ( -0.01) | 28.73% ( -0.03) | 41.79% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 44.31% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.1% ( 0.1) | 61.89% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.33% ( 0.08) | 81.66% ( -0.08) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.61% ( 0.05) | 37.38% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.83% ( 0.05) | 74.16% ( -0.05) |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.76% ( 0.08) | 29.23% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.81% ( 0.09) | 65.18% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Northampton Town |
1-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.74% 3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.74% Total : 29.47% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.92% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.72% | 0-1 @ 13.43% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.27% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.39% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.52% Total : 41.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |