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Barrow
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Walsall
Swindon Town
League Two | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
County Ground
Morecambe

Swindon
3 - 3
Morecambe

Austin (5', 35'), Kokolo (74')
McCarthy (46')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Adams (15'), Fairclough (21'), Smith (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Swindon Town and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Swindon
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 1-2 Forest Green
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Swindon Town 1-1 Morecambe

It has been a disappointing campaign for both teams, with each likely looking forward to the season drawing to a close this weekend. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see them battle it out to a draw, particularly due to the poor form Swindon and Morecambe have coming into this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.38%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
53.38% (0.034000000000006 0.03) 21.89% (0.0019999999999989 0) 24.72% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.98% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.84% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)37.15% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.64% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)59.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)14.04% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.4% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)41.6% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.11% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)27.89% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.49% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)63.5% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Swindon Town 53.38%
    Morecambe 24.72%
    Draw 21.89%
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 7.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.31% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 3.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.42% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.22%
5-0 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 53.38%
1-1 @ 9.82% (0.004999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 5% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 24.72%

How you voted: Swindon vs Morecambe

Swindon Town
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Morecambe
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Morecambe
2-2
Swindon
Taylor (31'), Walker (80')
Connolly (33'), Songo'o (54')
Songo'o (55')
Kemp (12'), Austin (57' pen.)
Khan (78'), Kemp (90+5')
Apr 13, 2020 3pm
Aug 31, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 6
Swindon
3-1
Morecambe
Doyle (5', 21'), Yates (17')
Mar 23, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 39
Swindon
4-0
Morecambe
Robinson (10'), Woolery (42'), Conroy (66'), Bennett (81')
Bennett (80')

Kenyon (36')
Sep 8, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 7
Morecambe
0-1
Swindon

Old (78')
Adebayo (26')
McCourt (78')
Knoyle (35')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall402012870462472
2Bradford CityBradford4020101052341870
3Port Vale401913851381370
4Notts County4019111061392268
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster3919101059461367
6AFC Wimbledon4018111153312265
7Grimsby Town40195165457-362
8Crewe AlexandraCrewe40151694739861
9Colchester UnitedColchester40141794840859
10Chesterfield3916101361451658
11Salford City391512124844457
12Fleetwood TownFleetwood401414125749856
13Bromley401314135251153
14Swindon TownSwindon401215135757051
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham401311165159-850
16BarrowBarrow401310174447-349
17Newport CountyNewport40138194965-1647
18MK Dons40137205162-1146
19Gillingham391112163341-845
20Harrogate TownHarrogate40129193351-1845
21Accrington StanleyAccrington401012184659-1342
22Tranmere RoversTranmere40913183258-2640
23Morecambe40106243657-2136
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle40710233161-3031


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