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AFC Wimbledon
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Barrow
Bradford City
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Carlisle United
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Morecambe
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Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Swindon Town
League Two | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
County Ground
Morecambe

Swindon
3 - 3
Morecambe

Austin (5', 35'), Kokolo (74')
McCarthy (46')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Adams (15'), Fairclough (21'), Smith (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Swindon Town and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Swindon
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 1-2 Forest Green
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Swindon Town 1-1 Morecambe

It has been a disappointing campaign for both teams, with each likely looking forward to the season drawing to a close this weekend. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see them battle it out to a draw, particularly due to the poor form Swindon and Morecambe have coming into this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.38%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
53.38% (0.034000000000006 0.03) 21.89% (0.0019999999999989 0) 24.72% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.98% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.84% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)37.15% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.64% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)59.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)14.04% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.4% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)41.6% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.11% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)27.89% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.49% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)63.5% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Swindon Town 53.38%
    Morecambe 24.72%
    Draw 21.89%
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 7.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.31% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 3.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.42% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.22%
5-0 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 53.38%
1-1 @ 9.82% (0.004999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 5% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 24.72%

How you voted: Swindon vs Morecambe

Swindon Town
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Morecambe
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Morecambe
2-2
Swindon
Taylor (31'), Walker (80')
Connolly (33'), Songo'o (54')
Songo'o (55')
Kemp (12'), Austin (57' pen.)
Khan (78'), Kemp (90+5')
Apr 13, 2020 3pm
Aug 31, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 6
Swindon
3-1
Morecambe
Doyle (5', 21'), Yates (17')
Mar 23, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 39
Swindon
4-0
Morecambe
Robinson (10'), Woolery (42'), Conroy (66'), Bennett (81')
Bennett (80')

Kenyon (36')
Sep 8, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 7
Morecambe
0-1
Swindon

Old (78')
Adebayo (26')
McCourt (78')
Knoyle (35')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Falcons
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Gillingham9612123919
2Notts County9531178918
3Walsall96031710718
4BarrowBarrow9513116516
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster95131212016
6Fleetwood TownFleetwood8431169715
7Port Vale94321412215
8Grimsby Town95041314-115
9Newport CountyNewport95041517-215
10Chesterfield9342158713
11AFC Wimbledon641194513
12Crewe AlexandraCrewe841389-113
13Bradford CityBradford93331110112
14MK Dons93241211111
15Colchester UnitedColchester92431315-210
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham93151114-310
17Tranmere RoversTranmere824248-410
18Harrogate TownHarrogate9315916-710
19Bromley92341214-29
20Salford City823359-49
21Swindon TownSwindon9144913-47
22Carlisle UnitedCarlisle92071019-96
23Morecambe9045712-54
24Accrington StanleyAccrington8035918-93


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