Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.