Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for New York City FC in this match.