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Major League Soccer
Mar 9, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Yankee Stadium
Orlando City

NY City
2 - 1
Orlando City

Martinez (59'), Wolf (71')
Moralez (66'), O'Toole (77')
O'Toole (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Muriel (69')
Angulo (60'), Atuesta (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Los Angeles 1-0 NY City
Sunday, March 2 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Orlando City 4-2 Toronto
Sunday, March 2 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: New York City FC 2-1 Orlando City

Despite their current record, NYCFC's start to the season has not been terrible, and we believe the energy of the home crowd and facing an Orlando side that have not been great defensively will propel the Pigeons to their first victory of the season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for New York City FC in this match.

Result
New York City FCDrawOrlando City
45.84% (0.295 0.3) 22.78% (-0.161 -0.16) 31.38% (-0.136 -0.14)
Both teams to score 64.33% (0.53099999999999 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.58% (0.724 0.72)36.42% (-0.727 -0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.44% (0.789 0.79)58.56% (-0.79 -0.79)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.63% (0.392 0.39)16.37% (-0.395 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.01% (0.706 0.71)45.99% (-0.70800000000001 -0.71)
Orlando City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.92% (0.271 0.27)23.08% (-0.275 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.08% (0.399 0.4)56.91% (-0.4 -0.4)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 45.84%
    Orlando City 31.38%
    Draw 22.77%
New York City FCDrawOrlando City
2-1 @ 9.07% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.84% (-0.154 -0.15)
2-0 @ 6.19% (-0.057 -0.06)
3-1 @ 5.47% (0.067 0.07)
3-2 @ 4.01% (0.08 0.08)
3-0 @ 3.73% (0.015 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.48% (0.062 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.82% (0.06 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.69% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 4.55%
Total : 45.84%
1-1 @ 10.02% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-2 @ 6.65% (0.047 0.05)
0-0 @ 3.78% (-0.137 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1.96% (0.055 0.06)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 22.77%
1-2 @ 7.35% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-1 @ 5.54% (-0.155 -0.15)
0-2 @ 4.06% (-0.08 -0.08)
1-3 @ 3.59% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.25% (0.049 0.05)
0-3 @ 1.99% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.32% (0.013 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.19% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 31.38%

How you voted: NY City vs Orlando City

New York City FC
44.4%
Draw
55.6%
Orlando City
0.0%
9
Head to Head
Jul 21, 2024 12.30am
Orlando City
1-1
NY City
Enrique (52')
Araujo (13')
Wolf (57')
Sands (43'), Tanasijevic (70'), Wolf (71'), Haak (90+6')
Jun 29, 2024 12.30am
NY City
4-2
Orlando City
Rodriguez (15'), Wolf (45+4'), Ojeda (45+12'), Bakrar (90+4')
Martins (78'), Freese (78')
Dan Thor­halls­son (72'), McGuire (90+1')
Sep 21, 2023 12.30am
May 18, 2023 12.30am
Oct 2, 2022 6pm
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