Major League Soccer
Sep 3, 2023 at 3.30am UK
Stanford Stadium
We said: San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United
With only goal difference to split them in the league table, there is likely going to be very little between these two teams at the weekend in what should be a competitive match.
However, the recent run of Minnesota United coupled with their strong away form could be enough for them to just edge three points here.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 50.87% . A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 23.1% .
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.86%) . The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (6.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%) . The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood .
Result San Jose Earthquakes Draw Minnesota United 50.87% ( -1.32) 23.12% ( 0.31) 26% ( 1.01)
Both teams to score 58.98% ( -0.03)
58.28% ( -0.51) 41.71% ( 0.5)
35.88% ( -0.51) 64.11% ( 0.51)
San Jose Earthquakes Goals
83.48% ( -0.66) 16.51% ( 0.65)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 53.75% ( -1.19) 46.25% ( 1.18)
70.65% ( 0.52) 29.34% ( -0.52)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 34.67% ( 0.63) 65.32% ( -0.63)
San Jose Earthquakes 50.87%
Minnesota United 26%
Draw 23.11%
San Jose Earthquakes Draw Minnesota United 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 5.79% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.34% Total : 50.87% 1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.11% 1-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 5.94% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.28% Total : 26%
rhs 2.0
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