UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League B

Sep 24, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Serbia
4 - 1
Sweden

Mitrovic (18', 45+1', 50'), Lukic (70')
Zivkovic (24'), Milinkovic-Savic (67'), Racic (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Claesson (15')
Hien (8')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Serbia and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Serbia

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Slovenia 2-2 Serbia
Sunday, June 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Serbia	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

Sweden

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Norway 3-2 Sweden
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Serbia	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

Sweden are going through a transitional phase, and are switching back to tried-and-trusted methods in search of their identity - several key players remain short of playing time at club level too. Therefore, Serbia can capitalise by dictating possession and scoring at least once through several attacking options. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 54.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 21.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.34%), while for a Sweden win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
Serbia	Draw	Sweden
54.15% ( 0.07)	23.85% ( -0.08)	21.99% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 51.94% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.12% (

0.36)

48.87% (

-0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.03% (

0.33)

70.96% (

-0.33)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.04% (

0.16)

17.95% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.21% (

0.28)

48.78% (

-0.28)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.3% (

0.22)

36.69% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.51% (

0.22)

73.48% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Serbia 54.15%

Sweden 21.99%

Draw 23.85%

Serbia	Draw	Sweden
1-0 @ 11.31% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 5.56% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 54.15%	1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.85%	0-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 21.99%