Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.48% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.