Primeira Liga | Gameweek 27

Apr 8, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 0
Maritimo

Mujica (34')
Basso (65'), Esgaio (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Val (42'), Xadas (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Maritimo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 0-1 Arouca
Monday, April 3 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Maritimo

All competitions

Last Game: Maritimo 4-2 Boavista
Sunday, April 2 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Following their win at Famalicao, Arouca will head into the weekend in sky-high spirits as they make a late push for a place in Europe. The Arouquenses have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks, and while Maritimo will be looking to pick up from where they dropped off last Sunday, we are backing the hosts to pick up all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Maritimo
44.98% ( -0.38)	26.32% ( 0.17)	28.7% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 50.73% (

-0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.45% (

-0.56)

53.55% (

0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.94% (

-0.48)

75.06% (

0.47)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.28% (

-0.42)

23.72% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.15% (

-0.61)

57.85% (

0.61)

Maritimo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.5% (

-0.14)

33.5% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.86% (

-0.15)

70.13% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Arouca 44.98%

Maritimo 28.7%

Draw 26.31%

Arouca	Draw	Maritimo
1-0 @ 11.43% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.95% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.73% Total : 44.98%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.31%	0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 28.7%