Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 86.84%. A draw had a probability of 8.5% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 4.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.61%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-2 (1.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Portimonense |
86.84% ( 0.11) | 8.51% ( -0.02) | 4.65% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 54.16% ( -0.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
81.36% ( -0.44) | 18.63% ( 0.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
63.88% ( -0.64) | 36.11% ( 0.63) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
97.19% ( -0.06) | 2.8% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
87.18% ( -0.19) | 12.81% ( 0.18) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.72% ( -0.81) | 44.27% ( 0.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.65% ( -0.66) | 80.35% ( 0.66) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Portimonense |
3-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.2) 4-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.14) 6-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.08) 5-2 @ 2% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 1.84% ( 0) 7-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 6-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.05) Other @ 5.61% Total : 86.84% | 1-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.03% Total : 8.51% | 1-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 4.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |