Primeira Liga | Gameweek 8

Oct 8, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 1
Arouca

Gyokeres (31'), Morita (68')
Diomande (29'), Edwards (45+2'), Quaresma (62')
Diomande (42')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mujica (52')
Mujica (29'), Cristo (58'), Weverson (60'), Fernandes (64'), De Arruabarrena (74'), Santos (90+3')
Fernandes (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Atalanta
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 0-2 Chaves
Sunday, October 1 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Arouca

While there is the potential for Sporting to suffer a European hangover, their motivation to remain top should serve them well. Arouca look increasingly devoid of confidence, and it would come as a surprise if Sporting do not win and win well. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Arouca
66.77% ( 0.13)	20.07% ( 0.3)	13.16% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 46.41% (

-2.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.78% (

-2.22)

47.22% (

2.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.55% (

-2.1)

69.45% (

2.1)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.77% (

-0.63)

13.23% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.02% (

-1.3)

39.98% (

1.3)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.49% (

-2.04)

46.51% (

2.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.88% (

-1.61)

82.12% (

1.61)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 66.76%

Arouca 13.16%

Draw 20.07%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Arouca
2-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.56) 1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.84) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.23) 4-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.24) 5-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.15) Other @ 2.73% Total : 66.76%	1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.55) 2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.26) Other @ 0.7% Total : 20.07%	0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.14% Total : 13.16%