Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 56.13%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for St Johnstone had a probability of 21.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a St Johnstone win it was 1-2 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.
Result | ||
Hearts | Draw | St Johnstone |
56.13% ( 0.67) | 22% ( -0.27) | 21.88% ( -0.4) |
Both teams to score 57.91% ( 0.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.12% ( 0.75) | 40.88% ( -0.75) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.73% ( 0.76) | 63.27% ( -0.77) |
Hearts Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.56% ( 0.47) | 14.43% ( -0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.62% ( 0.91) | 42.37% ( -0.91) |
St Johnstone Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.68% ( 0.06) | 32.32% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.17% ( 0.07) | 68.83% ( -0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Hearts | Draw | St Johnstone |
2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 8.74% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.09% Total : 56.13% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 5.57% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.16) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 21.99% | 1-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.48% Total : 21.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 28 | 31 |
2 | Aberdeen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 31 |
3 | RangersRangers | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 22 |
4 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 19 |
5 | Motherwell | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 19 |
6 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 15 |
7 | Dundee | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 12 |
8 | Kilmarnock | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 12 |
9 | Ross County | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 12 |
10 | St Johnstone | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 10 |
11 | Hearts | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Hibernian | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |