Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 61.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Monza had a probability of 17.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
Result | ||
Fiorentina | Draw | Monza |
61.55% ( -0.19) | 21.42% ( 0.05) | 17.03% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 51.37% ( 0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.53% ( 0.04) | 45.47% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.19% ( 0.04) | 67.8% ( -0.04) |
Fiorentina Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.75% ( -0.05) | 14.25% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.99% ( -0.09) | 42.01% ( 0.09) |
Monza Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.9% ( 0.2) | 40.09% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.26% ( 0.19) | 76.74% ( -0.19) |
Score Analysis |
Fiorentina | Draw | Monza |
1-0 @ 11.13% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 10.84% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.44% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.68% Total : 61.54% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.03) Other @ 1% Total : 21.42% | 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.98% Total : 17.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 37 |
2 | Napoli | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 35 |
3 | Inter Milan | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 34 |
4 | Fiorentina | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 31 |
5 | Lazio | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 31 |
6 | Juventus | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 |
7 | Bologna | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 25 |
8 | AC Milan | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
9 | Udinese | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 20 |
10 | Empoli | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 19 |
11 | Torino | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 19 |
12 | Roma | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 16 |
13 | Genoa | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Lecce | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 16 |
15 | Parma | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 15 |
16 | Como | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 15 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 15 |
18 | CagliariCagliari | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
19 | Monza | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 10 |
> Serie A Full Table |