Sporting Kansas City will open the 2024 Leagues Cup on Sunday by welcoming the Chicago Fire to Children's Mercy Park in the opening match of the tournament for both sides.
In the 2023 Leagues Cup, they were each eliminated in the round of 32, with KC losing 4-1 to Toluca, while the Fire were beaten 1-0 by Club America.
Match preview
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Making the MLS Cup playoffs seems like a pipe dream for Peter Vermes and Kansas City at this stage of the season, as they currently sit 12th in the Western Conference with 24 points, nine below that post-season line.
While the season, in general, has been poor for them, they have generated more positive results recently, claiming at least a point in five of their last seven competitive fixtures while going unbeaten in four straight games at Children's Mercy Park.
The one constant with them throughout the 2024 campaign has been their ability to find the back of the net, scoring multiple goals in nine of their 13 MLS home contests this year and 11 of 15 across all competitions.
Sporting are averaging 1.58 goals per match in MLS this season, which is the fourth-most for them with Peter Vermes as the head coach.
Two of their three matches played at Children's Mercy Park in this competition have ended in defeat for the home side, who lost those two games by a combined margin of 10-2.
Sporting KC have won six of their previous seven home contests versus the Fire, failing to concede in five of those instances.
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It has been one step forward and two steps back for Chicago throughout the regular season as they followed up a 1-0 victory over FC Cincinnati with a 2-1 defeat to Inter Miami the last time out.
In 2024, the Fire have yet to win consecutive fixtures in MLS, a big reason why they find themselves second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference, though they are only three points below the playoff line.
Frank Klopas's men have scored 70% of their goals in MLS this year (21 of 30) in the second half, and they have been slow starters with just one goal in the opening 15 minutes, the fewest in the league this season.
While five of their six regular-season triumphs have been by a single goal, the Fire have also lost seven times in MLS this year by that narrow margin.
Last year, the Fire went undefeated in this portion of the competition, topping a group that featured Minnesota United and Puebla.
Their only victory at this tournament occurred away from home in 2023, defeating Minnesota at Allianz Field 3-2, while they won their previous visit to Children's Mercy Park last year by a 1-0 score.
Team News
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In their 1-1 draw with St Louis City last weekend, SKC were without Daniel Rosero due to a sore hamstring, Memo Rodriguez sat out with a quad knock, Felipe Hernandez is out indefinitely because of alleged illegal betting and Logan Ndenbe will not be back this season with a torn ACL.
Vermes will not have Jake Davis or John Pulskamp at his disposal for this encounter, as they are both representing the USA at the Paris Olympics.
Willy Agada had the equalising goal for them in their previous MLS fixture, his team-leading ninth of the domestic campaign.
Chicago will likely be missing Carlos Teran and Federico Navarro because of leg issues, while Andrew Gutman and Chase Gasper are dealing with hamstring strains.
Xherdan Shaqiri has yet to report back to the team since Switzerland were knocked out of the Euros, and it seems unlikely that he will return this season.
Rafael Czichos temporarily put them on level terms against Inter Miami last weekend, his first of the MLS campaign before Jordi Alba put the Herons up for good two minutes later.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Shelton, Castellanos, Voloder, Leibold; Walter, Radoja, Thommy; Russell, Agada, Salloi
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Brady; Souquet, Omsberg, Czichos, Dean; Herbers, Acosta, Gimenez, Gutierrez; Haile-Selassie, Koutsias
We say: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Chicago Fire (Sporting Kansas City wins on penalties)
Five of the last six meetings between the Fire and Sporting Kansas City at Children's Mercy Park have been decided by a single goal.
If it is as close as we anticipate, we trust that Tim Melia's reflexes will propel Sporting to victory, given that he has never lost a penalty shootout in his professional career.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 22.36% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.7%) and 1-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Kansas City in this match.
Joel Lefevre
