Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.16%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.69%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.