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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | 2nd Leg
May 18, 2024 at 7.30am UK
Westpac Stadium
Melbourne Victory

Wellington
1 - 2
Victory

Zawada (90+9')
Salas (90+1')
FT
(aet)
Traore (82'), Ikonomidis (102')
Arzani (30'), Chapman (97')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 0-0 Wellington
Sunday, May 12 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 0-0 Wellington
Sunday, May 12 at 7am in Australian A-League

We say: Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory (Melbourne Victory to win 2-1 on aggregate)

With these two teams having each finished in the top three of the standings, we do not expect much between them in this second leg. However, with Melbourne having had more game time of late, we feel that their extra sharpness could prove key in securing a place in the final. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%).

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
29.96% (-0.215 -0.22) 23.71% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08) 46.33% (0.291 0.29)
Both teams to score 60.09% (0.141 0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.34% (0.244 0.24)41.65% (-0.246 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.94% (0.247 0.25)64.05% (-0.248 -0.25)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.47% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)26.53% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.27% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)61.73% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.78% (0.212 0.21)18.22% (-0.213 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.76% (0.363 0.36)49.23% (-0.363 -0.36)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 29.96%
    Melbourne Victory 46.33%
    Draw 23.7%
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
2-1 @ 7.25% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-0 @ 6.41% (-0.074 -0.07)
2-0 @ 4.25% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-1 @ 3.21% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 1.88% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.06% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 29.96%
1-1 @ 10.91% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-2 @ 6.17% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.83% (-0.053 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.55% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.7%
1-2 @ 9.3% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 8.23% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.01% (0.019 0.02)
1-3 @ 5.28% (0.047 0.05)
0-3 @ 3.98% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 3.5% (0.03 0.03)
1-4 @ 2.25% (0.036 0.04)
0-4 @ 1.69% (0.028 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.49% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 46.33%

How you voted: Wellington vs Victory

Wellington Phoenix
45.5%
Draw
18.2%
Melbourne Victory
36.4%
11
Head to Head
May 12, 2024 7am
Apr 12, 2024 8am
Gameweek 24
Wellington
1-0
Victory
Surman (90+5' og.)
Payne (31'), Ball (65')

Monge (34'), Da Silva (90+1')
Jan 19, 2024 6am
Gameweek 13
Wellington
1-1
Victory
Rufer (90+5' pen.)
Payne (45+8')
Chapman (79')
Traore (36')
Nov 10, 2023 8.45am
Gameweek 4
Victory
1-1
Wellington
Teague (14')
Geria (83')
Da Silva (41' og.)
Pennington (8'), Surman (18'), Kelly-Heald (45+4'), Payne (89')
Apr 1, 2023 3am
Gameweek 22
Wellington
1-2
Victory
Zawada (25')
Fornaroli (58'), Da Silva (76')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Sunday, June 16
 
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Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
 
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Saturday, June 22
 
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Sunday, June 23
 
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Saturday, June 29
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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Germany Germany11003
2 Switzerland Switzerland11003
3 Hungary Hungary10010
4 Scotland flag Scotland10010

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Spain Spain11003
2 Italy Italy11003
3 Albania national flag Albania10010
4 Croatia Croatia10010

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Denmark Denmark00000
2 England flag England00000
3 Serbia Serbia00000
4 Slovenia Slovenia00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands11003
2 Austria Austria00000
3 France France00000
4 Poland Poland10010

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Belgium Belgium00000
2 Romania Romania00000
3 Slovakia Slovakia00000
4 Ukraine Ukraine00000

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Czech Republic Czech Republic00000
2 Georgia Georgia00000
3 Portugal Portugal00000
4 Turkey Turkey00000


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