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Danish Superliga | Gameweek 21
May 28, 2020 at 6pm UK
Ceres Park

Aarhus
1 - 1
Randers

Mortensen (90+2')
Duncan (22'), Mortensen (63')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Piesinger (36')
Riis Jakobsen (67'), Hogh (90+5')

Preview: Aarhus vs. Randers - prediction, form guide, head to head

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Danish top-flight clash between Aarhus and Randers, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

After an absence of more than two-and-a-half months, Danish football returns on Thursday night with a fixture between Aarhus and Randers in the top flight.

While both teams went into the enforced break on the back of defeats, they sit in third and seventh-place respectively in the league standings.


Match preview

Given the global circumstances, the form book has effectively been ripped up with no games having been played in the Danish Superliga since March 9.

Nevertheless, having spent the most recent campaigns looking to fend off the threat of relegation, few teams will be more motivated than Aarhus as they bid to retain third place in the table.

Facing a 10-point deficit to Copenhagen in second spot, David Nielsen and his squad will be fully focused on attempting to remain above the chasing pack, with just six points separating five teams.

That scenario highlights that AGF cannot afford to be off the pace on Thursday, aware that defeat will allow Randers to halve the gap between the clubs.

Despite the period since their last outing, Nielsen will be desperate for his players to hit the ground running after their setback at bottom-of-the-table team Silkeborg.

Patrick Mortensen and Mustapha Bundu will be crucial to their hopes over the coming weeks having scored 18 goals between them this season.

As far as Randers are concerned, they will feel that this is the ideal fixture for them as they look to haul themselves back into contention for European qualification.

Although they currently sit three points adrift of Aalborg BK, who occupy the last playoff spot, their game in hand makes them a significant threat to a number of teams immediately above them.

Like their hosts, they suffered defeat in their last match, but their setback came in contrasting circumstances as they lost out to leaders Midtjylland.

While Aarhus have been largely reliant on their frontmen, the goals have been spread around the Randers side, with only one player netting more than six goals in the top flight.

However, Saba Lobjanidze, who had nine goals to his name, left for Ankaragucu earlier in the season, putting the onus on Emil Riis and Marvin Egho to carry more responsibility over the coming weeks.

Aarhus form: WWWDWL

Randers form: LWLDLL


Head To Head

Despite sitting above Randers in the standings, Aarhus have failed to defeat their upcoming opponents in 11 matches in all competitions.

During that time, Randers have recorded eight victories and three draws, leaving Aarhus without success since August 2015.


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We say: Aarhus 2-1 Randers

With both teams starting on a level-playing field, we can only back Aarhus to prevail in a hard-fought contest. The break has allowed them to regroup after two outings without success, and they will be motivated to take advantage of their game in hand over Brondby.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aarhus win with a probability of 44.33%. A win for Randers had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aarhus win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Randers win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.


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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1FC MidtjyllandMidtjylland148332721627
2AarhusAarhus1475228141426
3Copenhagen1475226161026
4RandersRanders1466227171024
5Brondby146442719822
6SilkeborgSilkeborg145722721622
7Nordsjaelland146442725222
8Viborg FFViborg144552725217
9Aalborg BKAaB144371628-1215
10SonderjyskESonderjyskE143291634-1811
11Lyngby BoldklubLyngby Boldklub14167918-99
12Vejle1412111534-195


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