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Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Nov 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Millerntor-Stadion
Bayern logo

St Pauli
0 - 1
Bayern


Guilavogui (64'), Blessin (65'), Saliakas (66')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Musiala (22')
Min-jae (66'), Laimer (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between St Pauli and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-2 St Pauli
Saturday, November 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-0 Benfica
Wednesday, November 6 at 8.15pm in Champions League

We said: St Pauli 0-4 Bayern Munich

Given the sheer number of attacking absentees for St Pauli, it is difficult to see how they can pose an offensive challenge to Bayern. Additionally, the visitors have been exceptional goalscorers away from home this season, and they could score multiple times in their clash at Millerntor-Stadion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 56.35%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 23.1% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.15%) and 1-3 (6.81%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
St PauliDrawBayern Munich
23.1% (0.291 0.29) 20.56% (0.139 0.14) 56.35% (-0.434 -0.43)
Both teams to score 64.92% (-0.13 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.54% (-0.334 -0.33)32.45% (0.33 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.9% (-0.38999999999999 -0.39)54.09% (0.387 0.39)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.44% (0.037999999999997 0.04)26.56% (-0.041 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.23% (0.052999999999997 0.05)61.76% (-0.055 -0.05)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.4% (-0.22500000000001 -0.23)11.6% (0.221 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.41% (-0.486 -0.49)36.59% (0.483 0.48)
Score Analysis
    St Pauli 23.1%
    Bayern Munich 56.35%
    Draw 20.56%
St PauliDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.83% (0.065 0.07)
1-0 @ 4.08% (0.077 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.78% (0.01 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.71% (0.054 0.05)
3-1 @ 2.58% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 1.2% (0.026 0.03)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3%
Total : 23.1%
1-1 @ 8.8% (0.087999999999999 0.09)
2-2 @ 6.28% (0.014 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.08% (0.054 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.99% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.56%
1-2 @ 9.48% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.15% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-3 @ 6.81% (-0.054 -0.05)
0-1 @ 6.64% (0.059 0.06)
0-3 @ 5.13% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
2-3 @ 4.51% (-0.03 -0.03)
1-4 @ 3.67% (-0.062 -0.06)
0-4 @ 2.76% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-4 @ 2.43% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-5 @ 1.58% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-5 @ 1.19% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-4 @ 1.07% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-5 @ 1.05% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 56.35%

How you voted: St Pauli vs Bayern

St Pauli
7.8%
Draw
7.8%
Bayern Munich
84.3%
102
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern13103041103133
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1375130201026
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Wolfsburg136342922721
6Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
7Freiburg136341717021
8Stuttgart135532623320
9Mainz 05Mainz135442318519
10Werder Bremen135442024-419
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach135351918118
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin134451214-216
13Augsburg134451625-916
14Hoffenheim133461825-713
15St Pauli133281117-611
16Heidenheim133191728-1110
17Holstein Kiel1312101333-205
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1302111034-242


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