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Bundesliga | Gameweek 5
Sep 28, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Leverkusen logo

Bayern
1 - 1
B. Leverkusen

Pavlovic (39')
Upamecano (23')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Andrich (31')
Alonso (23'), Andrich (32'), Wirtz (57'), Grimaldo (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Werder Bremen 0-5 Bayern
Saturday, September 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-3 Wolfsburg
Sunday, September 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 4-2 Bayer Leverkusen

Bayern have been incredible from an offensive perspective this season, and given Leverkusen's defensive vulnerability this term, they could plausibly create numerous goalscoring opportunities. Alonso's side have been strong offensively themselves, but while the likes of Wirtz and Boniface may score, it is difficult to see how they can win if Bayern are as strong offensively on Saturday as they have been in recent weeks. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 48.47%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 28.31% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawBayer Leverkusen
48.47% (-4.191 -4.19) 23.22% (1.243 1.24) 28.31% (2.948 2.95)
Both teams to score 60.66% (-1.737 -1.74)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.6% (-3.474 -3.47)40.4% (3.473 3.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.22% (-3.67 -3.67)62.77% (3.67 3.67)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.09% (-2.716 -2.72)16.9% (2.716 2.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.04% (-5.057 -5.06)46.95% (5.056 5.06)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73% (0.285 0.28)26.99% (-0.286 -0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.65% (0.372 0.37)62.34% (-0.373 -0.37)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 48.47%
    Bayer Leverkusen 28.31%
    Draw 23.22%
Bayern MunichDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.145 -0.15)
1-0 @ 8.11% (0.553 0.55)
2-0 @ 7.21% (-0.17 -0.17)
3-1 @ 5.59% (-0.646 -0.65)
3-0 @ 4.27% (-0.531 -0.53)
3-2 @ 3.66% (-0.39 -0.39)
4-1 @ 2.49% (-0.56 -0.56)
4-0 @ 1.9% (-0.447 -0.45)
4-2 @ 1.63% (-0.35 -0.35)
Other @ 4.16%
Total : 48.47%
1-1 @ 10.62% (0.801 0.8)
2-2 @ 6.18% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.56% (0.692 0.69)
3-3 @ 1.6% (-0.156 -0.16)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 23.22%
1-2 @ 6.96% (0.578 0.58)
0-1 @ 5.98% (0.948 0.95)
0-2 @ 3.91% (0.647 0.65)
1-3 @ 3.04% (0.274 0.27)
2-3 @ 2.7% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 1.71% (0.294 0.29)
1-4 @ 0.99% (0.097 0.1)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 28.31%

How you voted: Bayern vs B. Leverkusen

Bayern Munich
69.8%
Draw
18.3%
Bayer Leverkusen
11.8%
169
Head to Head
Feb 10, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
3-0
Bayern
Stanisic (18'), Grimaldo (50'), Frimpong (90+5')
Tapsoba (64'), Adli (77'), Hradecky (83')

Boey (36'), Goretzka (62')
Sep 15, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 4
Bayern
2-2
B. Leverkusen
Kane (7'), Goretzka (86')
Tuchel (25')
Grimaldo (24'), Palacios (90+4' pen.)
Hofmann (34'), Wirtz (47'), Tapsoba (69')
Mar 19, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 25
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Bayern
Palacios (55' pen., 73' pen.)
Kimmich (22')
Sep 30, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 8
Bayern
4-0
B. Leverkusen
Sane (3'), Musiala (17'), Mane (39'), Muller (84')
Mar 5, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 25
Bayern
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Sule (18')
Coman (72')
Muller (36' og.)
Bakker (32'), Demirbay (54')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Broncos
@
Saints
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern64202071314
2RB Leipzig642092714
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt6411149513
4Freiburg640297212
5Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen63211612411
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin632164211
7Borussia DortmundDortmund63121211110
8Stuttgart6231151149
9Heidenheim630310829
10Mainz 05Mainz6222111018
11Werder Bremen6222812-48
12Wolfsburg6213131217
13Augsburg6213915-67
14Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach6204710-36
15St Pauli611449-54
16Hoffenheim61141016-64
17Holstein Kiel6024919-102
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum6015614-81


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