Champions League | League Stage
Dec 11, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille3 - 2Sturm Graz
FT(HT: 2-1)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Lille 3-1 Brest
Friday, December 6 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Friday, December 6 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Goals
for
for
24
Last Game: Swarovski 0-3 Sturm Graz
Saturday, December 7 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Saturday, December 7 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Goals
for
for
40
We said: Lille 2-1 Sturm Graz
On a 14-game unbeaten run having beaten some of Europe's elite along the way, failing to win at home to one of the weakest clubs in the competition would be a huge shock, and Lille should get the job done. It may not be straightforward against a Sturm side riding high under interim boss Saumel though, and the visitors could make this difficult for Les Dogues, even if defeat is likely. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
47.84% ( 2.34) | 24.68% ( -0.58) | 27.48% ( -1.76) |
| Both teams to score 55.02% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
