For the first time since 2016, the Colorado Rapids will host an MLS playoff game as they welcome the Portland Timbers to Dick's Sporting Goods Park on Thursday for an American Thanksgiving Day affair.
The Timbers came back to beat Minnesota United 3-1 to advance to the second round of the postseason on Sunday, while the Burgundy Boys clinched the top spot in the Western Conference for the first time in club history by beating Los Angeles FC 5-2.
Match preview
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It is the most exciting time of the year if you are a soccer fan in the United States, especially if you support the Colorado Rapids, who are in the Conference Semi-Finals of the MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2016.
After claiming first overall on Decision Day thanks to some help from the Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City, who both failed to win their final regular-season matches, the expectations for Colorado will be a lot higher than they have ever been heading into the postseason.
This team have grown by leaps and bounds since Robin Fraser took charge, possessing the fourth-best defence in the regular season, conceding only 35 goals, while 10 different players had multiple goals for them this year.
Fraser's tenure with the Burgundy Boys speaks for itself, going 25-12-13 in his first 50 games at the helm while possessing the most points (88) and goals scored (82), plus the fewest goals conceded (61) and a solid goal differential (+21), along with the most clean sheets (17) and wins (25) of any Rapids manager after 50 fixtures.
Colorado averaged 1.76 points per game in the 2021 regular season, second only to the New England Revolution, while they also won a franchise-record 17 games this year and set another record for points with 61.
They are among the best sides in the league on free kicks and corners with a strong presence in the air and some clinical dead-ball specialists.
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Portland won a playoff game for the first time since 2018, but they did not make it easy on themselves, conceding the opening goal after only 11 minutes on Sunday before starting to pour on the pressure.
Giovanni Savarese said afterwards that he was very pleased with their performance, and aside from the opening 15 minutes, his side were in control of that match, creating the majority of the opportunities.
The biggest issue in their playoff opener was a recurring one that we have seen throughout the year, allowing too much space in behind their wide players, as their fullbacks Josecarlos Van Rankin and Claudio Bravo got caught playing too high up the field on the first goal of the match.
This is the fourth time in their history in which they have made it to the second stage of the MLS Cup Playoffs and the first time since 2018 when they made it all the way to the final, losing to Atlanta United.
Coming into this game, they are among the most clinical sides remaining in the final third, with three goals in each of their previous three matches, having scored at least once in all but one of their last 25 league games, though the one side who were able to keep them off the scoresheet were the Burgundy Boys.
Even though they have not beaten the Rapids this season, losing 2-0 and drawing 2-2, they should be feeling a little better about their chances to come back after clawing their way back and winning from a losing position over the weekend for the first time since June 19 when they erased a 1-0 deficit to beat Sporting KC 2-1.
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Team News
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In their final regular-season encounter, Collen Warner scored his first goal for Colorado, while Dominique Badji notched his fifth of the year and fourth in his last five games as he only needs two more goals to move into a tie with Chris Henderson for fifth all-time in franchise history.
Keegan Rosenberry is the only question mark for this team heading into this game as he is nursing an undisclosed injury.
Jack Price led the way in assists this year for the Rapids with 12, and since 2019 he leads the league in assists off set-piece plays with 22, while William Yarbrough had an outstanding first full season as their starting goalkeeper with a league-high 13 clean sheets, and finishing fourth in saves among goalies with 107.
Sebastian Blanco picked up his first-ever postseason brace on Sunday as he now has five goals in nine playoff fixtures, while Diego Chara had a team-best 90.2% pass completion.
Portland will not have Eryk Williamson to call upon as he is out with a left ACL tear, Andy Polo is out with a right quad and knee issue, Jeff Attinella went through season-ending right rectus femoris surgery months ago, Ismaila Jome is still recovering from Achilles tendon surgery and Hunter Sulte has a concussion.
Four Timbers players made their MLS playoff debuts over the weekend, including Claudio Bravo, Santiago Moreno, Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Josecarlos Van Rankin.
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Abubakar, Wilson, Trusty; Beitashour, Bassett, Price, Acosta; Rubio, Shinyashiki; Lewis
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, Mabiala, Zuparic, Bravo; D. Chara, Paredes; Y. Chara, Blanco, Asprilla; Mora
We say: Colorado Rapids 2-1 Portland Timbers (a.e.t)
Portland are likely to begin the match a lot sharper than their opponents, having played just a few days ago, but the Rapids have plenty of speed out wide and are capable of finding those little pockets of space in between the middle of the field and the final third.
There should be plenty of individual quality on display for each team, but the Burgundy Boys are more compact defensively with a goalkeeper who is among the best in the league, which could be the difference in this match.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colorado Rapids win with a probability of 61.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colorado Rapids win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.26%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
