MX23RW : Monday, April 15 02:33:47| >> :600:371187:371187:
Southampton logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays
Feb 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Watford logo

Southampton
3 - 0
Watford

Mara (52', 58'), Adams (76')
Smallbone (21'), Obling (51'), Edozie (86'), Armstrong (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Morris (46'), Chakvetadze (49'), Porteous (69'), Sierralta (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rotherham 0-2 Southampton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 0-1 Cardiff
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 3-1 Watford

Southampton have home advantage in this winner-takes-all clash, and they should be confident of extending their unbeaten run to 24 matches on Tuesday night. Watford have a number of attacking players who could cause damage on the South Coast, but we believe that the Hornets' FA Cup journey ends here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 57.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 20.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
SouthamptonDrawWatford
57.92% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01) 21.9% (0.0019999999999989 0) 20.18% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Both teams to score 55.61% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.3%42.7% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.9% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)65.1%
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)14.47% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.55% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)42.45% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.02% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)34.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.28% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)71.72% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 57.92%
    Watford 20.18%
    Draw 21.89%
SouthamptonDrawWatford
2-1 @ 9.93%
1-0 @ 9.79% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 9.46% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.4% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 6.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.36%
4-1 @ 3.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.94% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.62%
5-1 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.14% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 57.92%
1-1 @ 10.27%
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 5.06%
3-3 @ 1.18% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 5.4% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 5.32% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 2.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 1.89% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.83% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 20.18%

How you voted: Southampton vs Watford

Southampton
81.5%
Draw
10.2%
Watford
8.3%
157
Head to Head
Jan 28, 2024 2pm
Fourth Round
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Martins (5')
Chakvetadze (45')
Armstrong (89')
Holgate (4'), Alcaraz (40')
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 20
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Healey (90+6')
Porteous (59'), Kone (61'), Hoedt (87')
Adams (56')
Charles (34'), Armstrong (45'), Armstrong (87'), Fraser (90+3')
Jul 23, 2022 3pm
Mar 13, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 29
Southampton
1-2
Watford
Elyounoussi (45')
Perraud (48'), Romeu (65'), Bednarek (76')
Camilo Hernandez (14', 34')
Camilo Hernandez (60'), Sissoko (86')
Oct 30, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 10
Watford
0-1
Southampton

Pedro (45+2'), Kucka (76')
Adams (20')
Salisu (55'), Ward-Prowse (58')
rhs 2.0
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1Manchester CityMan City32227376324473
2Arsenal32225575264971
3Liverpool32218372314171
4Aston Villa33196868491963
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs32186865491660
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle321551269521750
7Manchester UnitedMan Utd32155124748-150
8West Ham UnitedWest Ham33139115258-648
9Chelsea30128105552344
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton321111105250244
11Wolverhampton WanderersWolves32127134651-543
12Fulham33126154951-242
13Bournemouth32119124757-1042
14Crystal Palace3289153754-1733
15Brentford3388174758-1132
16Everton3198143242-1027
17Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest3379174258-1626
18Luton TownLuton3367204670-2425
19Burnley3348213368-3520
20Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd3237223084-5416


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