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Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Sep 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
England national football team

Italy
1 - 0
England

Raspadori (68')
Bonucci (48'), Di Lorenzo (80')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Grealish (90+4')

The Match

Team News

West Ham United striker Gianluca Scamacca is named in Italy's starting lineup to face England at San Siro in their UEFA Nations League clash on Friday.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Italy and England, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how England could line up for Friday's UEFA Nations League clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Six:
Comp:
Last Game: Germany 5-2 Italy
Tuesday, June 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Last Six:
Comp:
Last Game: England 0-4 Hungary
Tuesday, June 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Italy 1-1 England

Both Italy and England are a far cry from where they were at Euro 2020, so Southgate and Mancini ought to feel that their opposite number is there for the taking this week, and the hosts can play with the handbrake off given their lack of World Cup commitments. The Three Lions will likely be forced to pack their bags and prepare for life in League B should they fail to win at San Siro, but an out-of-sorts Azzurri are still a force to be reckoned with on home soil, and we can only envisage this one ending level. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for England had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest England win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Italy in this match.

Result
ItalyDrawEngland
42.71% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04) 26.19% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06) 31.1% (0.097000000000001 0.1)
Both teams to score 52.37% (0.232 0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.99% (0.279 0.28)52.01% (-0.283 -0.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.25% (0.241 0.24)73.75% (-0.24299999999999 -0.24)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.85% (0.105 0.11)24.15% (-0.106 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.53% (0.15 0.15)58.47% (-0.153 -0.15)
England Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.04% (0.209 0.21)30.96% (-0.21 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.74% (0.245 0.24)67.26% (-0.247 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    Italy 42.71%
    England 31.1%
    Draw 26.18%
ItalyDrawEngland
1-0 @ 10.62% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-1 @ 8.85% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.55% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-1 @ 4.19% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.57% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.46% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.49% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 42.71%
1-1 @ 12.45% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 7.48% (-0.084 -0.08)
2-2 @ 5.19% (0.034 0.03)
3-3 @ 0.96% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.18%
0-1 @ 8.77% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-2 @ 7.3% (0.026 0.03)
0-2 @ 5.14% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 2.85% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.03% (0.025 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.01% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3%
Total : 31.1%

How you voted: Italy vs England

Italy
38.0%
Draw
23.1%
England
38.9%
637
Head to Head
Jun 11, 2022 7.45pm
League A3
England
0-0
Italy

Grealish (29'), Ward-Prowse (81')

Locatelli (25'), Gatti (48'), Tonali (90+3')
Jul 11, 2021 8pm
Italy
1-1
England
Italy win 3-2 on penalties
Bonucci (67')
Barella (47'), Bonucci (55'), Insigne (84'), Chiellini (90+6'), Jorginho (114')
Shaw (2')
Maguire (106')
Mar 27, 2020 8pm
Mar 31, 2015 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
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