Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.