Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.