Benfica travel to Maritimo in the Primeira Liga on Monday evening with both sides having suffered a decline in form.
The hosts have failed to win any of their last four league matches, while Benfica have lost back-to-back games in the top-flight against Boavista and Braga.
Match preview
© Reuters
Benfica fought back once again as they came from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Rangers in the Europa League on Thursday.
James Tavernier scored an own goal before substitute Pizzi lashed one home in the 81st minute to secure another point against the Gers, which leaves Jorge Jesus's men level on points with the Scottish side at the top of Group D.
Benfica have struggled in recent weeks with their defensive frailties proving costly, having conceded 11 goals in their last five matches in all competitions.
The Eagles have won just once in that time, which saw them struggle to a narrow 1-0 victory over third-tier side Paredes.
Knowing that their rivals Sporting Lisbon are in a rich vein of form, Benfica – who have won the league title in five of the last seven seasons – will been keen the ensure that the four-point gap between themselves and first place is not extended any time soon.
© Reuters
Maritimo have struggled to get back to winning ways since they defeated both Tondela and Porto earlier on in the season.
Lito Vidigal's side have lost three of their last four matches, all by a 2-1 scoreline against Portimonense, Moreirense and most recently to Famalicao.
They did however beat Penafiel 3-2 after extra time in the Taca de Portugal last week, with Rodrigo Pinho's hat-trick sending them through to the next round.
Maritimo are looking to win back-to-back matches against Benfica for the first time after beating them in this fixture 2-0 last season. However, the Portuguese giants had won the previous four meetings, winning by an aggregate score of 16-0.
A victory on Monday would be Maritimo's third league win of the campaign and could see them climb into the top 10 of the Primeira Liga.
Maritimo Primeira Liga form: WWLLDL
Maritimo form (all competitions): WLLDLW
Benfica Primeira Liga form: WWWWLL
Benfica form (all competitions): WLDLWD
Team News
© Reuters
Maritimo trio Zainadine Junior, Dejan Kerkez and Franck-Yves Bambock are to be assessed leading up to kickoff, but they are all expected to be available on Monday.
Left-back Fabio China and winger Jorge Correa, who came off the bench in their cup victory over Penafiel last week, are set to return to the starting lineup.
Benfica's Jean-Clair Todibo (Achilles tendon), Andre Almeida (cruciate ligament rupture), Nuno Tavares (hip) and Pedrinho (foot problem) are all out injured.
Adel Taarabt, Julian Weigl and Darwin Nunez are also unavailable after testing positive for coronavirus.
Defender Nicolas Otamendi, who was suspended for Benfica's trip to Rangers, is likely to start ahead of Brazilian centre-back Jardel.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Abedzadeh; Winck, Africo, Junior, Rene, China; Bambock, Pelagio; Joel, Pinho, Correa
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Goncalves, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Rafa, Pires, Pizzi, Everton; Waldschmidt, Seferovic
We say: Maritimo 1-3 Benfica
The hosts have already defeated Porto this campaign and should have nothing to fear given Benfica's current woes, but the Eagles should have enough quality in the final third to secure the three points.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 65.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 13.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.95%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Maritimo win it was 1-0 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
