Freiburg

4 - 1

Union Berlin

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.