Home > Football > Bundesliga
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
46.4% ( 0.91) | 26.23% ( -0.03) | 27.37% ( -0.88) |
Both teams to score 50.12% ( -0.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.09% ( -0.36) | 53.91% ( 0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.64% ( -0.3) | 75.36% ( 0.3) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.8% ( 0.28) | 23.2% ( -0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.9% ( 0.4) | 57.1% ( -0.4) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.27% ( -0.88) | 34.73% ( 0.89) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.54% ( -0.95) | 71.46% ( 0.95) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
1-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.83% Total : 46.4% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.15% Total : 27.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 13 |
2 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12 |
3 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 |
6 | Heidenheim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
7 | Freiburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
8 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 8 |
9 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
12 | Mainz 05Mainz | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
13 | Wolfsburg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4 |
14 | St Pauli | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
15 | Augsburg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 3 |
17 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 1 |
18 | Holstein Kiel | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 1 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |