Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 25

Mar 19, 2023 at 6.30pm UK

Coface Arena

Mainz
1 - 1
Freiburg

Onisiwo (90+6')
Ajorque (57'), Caci (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Doan (55')
Ginter (35'), Gregoritsch (36'), Gulde (51'), Gregoritsch (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Hertha Berlin 1-1 Mainz
Saturday, March 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Freiburg 0-2 Juventus
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 Freiburg

With both teams enjoying five-match unbeaten runs in the Bundesliga in recent weeks, there is very little to split these two sides, and we can envisage both managers being content to get to the other side of the imminent international break with their recent records in tact. As such, it would be no surprise to see a share of the spoils be the outcome of Sunday's meeting at the MEWA Arena, which would be no disaster for either club. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.71%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Freiburg
49.71% ( 0.08)	24.46% ( -0.02)	25.83% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 54.34% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.21% (

0.01)

47.78% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.03% (

69.97% (

-0.01)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.74% (

0.03)

19.26% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.02% (

0.06)

50.98% (

-0.06)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.3% (

-0.05)

32.7% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.75% (

-0.06)

69.25% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 49.7%

Freiburg 25.83%

Draw 24.45%

Mainz 05	Draw	Freiburg
1-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.93% 4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 3.08% Total : 49.7%	1-1 @ 11.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.45%	0-1 @ 7.04% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.51% Total : 25.83%