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Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Dec 1, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Hoffenheim logo

Mainz
2 - 0
Hoffenheim

Burkardt (4', 24')
Mwene (16')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Kramaric (28'), Kaderabek (32'), Stach (47')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Hoffenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Holstein Kiel 0-3 Mainz
Sunday, November 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Hoffenheim

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Braga 3-0 Hoffenheim
Thursday, November 28 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 Hoffenheim

 Mainz could start slowly given they may not be familiar with Hoffenheim's style of play under Ilzer, but it is difficult to overlook the visitors' poor record on the road. While the hosts might not win on Sunday, Hoffenheim proved on Thursday that they are still vulnerable defensively, and it would not be surprising if the spoils were shared at Mewa Arena. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawHoffenheim
41.25% (0.518 0.52) 25.24% (0.348 0.35) 33.5% (-0.868 -0.87)
Both teams to score 56.35% (-1.437 -1.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.76% (-1.767 -1.77)47.24% (1.764 1.76)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.53% (-1.666 -1.67)69.47% (1.663 1.66)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.22% (-0.51600000000001 -0.52)22.78% (0.514 0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.52% (-0.768 -0.77)56.48% (0.766 0.77)
Hoffenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.98% (-1.366 -1.37)27.02% (1.364 1.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.62% (-1.822 -1.82)62.38% (1.82 1.82)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 41.25%
    Hoffenheim 33.5%
    Draw 25.24%
Mainz 05DrawHoffenheim
1-0 @ 9.11% (0.524 0.52)
2-1 @ 8.81% (0.046000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 6.74% (0.29 0.29)
3-1 @ 4.35% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.32% (0.094 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.84% (-0.143 -0.14)
4-1 @ 1.61% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.23% (0.016 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.05% (-0.07 -0.07)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 41.25%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.24 0.24)
0-0 @ 6.16% (0.443 0.44)
2-2 @ 5.77% (-0.197 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.114 -0.11)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.24%
0-1 @ 8.06% (0.283 0.28)
1-2 @ 7.8% (-0.144 -0.14)
0-2 @ 5.27% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.4% (-0.2 -0.2)
2-3 @ 2.52% (-0.189 -0.19)
0-3 @ 2.3% (-0.098 -0.1)
1-4 @ 1.11% (-0.112 -0.11)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 33.5%

How you voted: Mainz vs Hoffenheim

Mainz 05
61.5%
Draw
30.8%
Hoffenheim
7.7%
52
Head to Head
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Gameweek 29
Mainz
4-1
Hoffenheim
Burkardt (47'), Mwene (51'), Gruda (63'), Onisiwo (88')
Kaderabek (19')
Promel (39'), Kabak (83')
> Preview
Nov 26, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 12
Hoffenheim
1-1
Mainz
Skov (48')
Kramaric (25'), Brooks (30'), Kabak (32'), Promel (44')
Richter (39')
Fernandes (25'), Caci (29'), Richter (68'), Mwene (90+1')
> Preview
Mar 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
1-0
Hoffenheim
Barreiro (33')
> Preview
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Hoffenheim
4-1
Mainz
Kramaric (53'), Promel (69'), Dabour (80'), Kaderabek (90+2')
Kohr (83')
> Preview
Feb 5, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 21
Mainz
2-0
Hoffenheim
Jae-sung (79'), Niakhate (83' pen.)

Hubner (17'), Rutter (74')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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