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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Nov 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
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Mainz
3 - 1
Dortmund

Jae-sung (36'), Burkardt (45+3'), Nebel (54')
Nebel (32'), Kohr (45'), Zentner (86')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Guirassy (40' pen.)
Schlotterbeck (28')
Can (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Mainz
Sunday, November 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 Sturm Graz
Tuesday, November 5 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

 It is difficult to overlook the fact that Dortmund have been poor away from home in recent weeks, as well as that they will likely be forced to use midfielders in the defensive line. Mainz have a good opportunity to win against a vulnerable BVB side, and it would not be surprising if they managed to take advantage of the visitors' weaknesses on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
30.37% (0.009999999999998 0.01) 23.08% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 46.54% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Both teams to score 62.6% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.54% (0.039999999999999 0.04)38.45% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.25% (0.040999999999997 0.04)60.74% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.32% (0.027000000000001 0.03)24.67% (-0.028000000000002 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.79% (0.036999999999999 0.04)59.21% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.11% (0.013000000000005 0.01)16.89% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.08% (0.026000000000003 0.03)46.92% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 30.37%
    Borussia Dortmund 46.54%
    Draw 23.08%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.26% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 5.83% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-0 @ 4.08% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 3.39% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-2 @ 3.01% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 1.9% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.18% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 30.37%
1-1 @ 10.37%
2-2 @ 6.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.17% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.79% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.08%
1-2 @ 9.22% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 7.41% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.59% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.47% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-3 @ 3.91% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 3.83% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 2.43% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-4 @ 1.74%
2-4 @ 1.7% (0.002 0)
Other @ 4.24%
Total : 46.54%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
36.6%
Draw
30.5%
Borussia Dortmund
32.9%
82
Head to Head
May 11, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Mainz
3-0
Dortmund
Barreiro (12'), Jae-sung (19', 23')
Hanche-Olsen (45+1'), Barreiro (56')

Reus (41'), Schlotterbeck (80')
> Preview
Dec 19, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Brandt (29')
Van den Berg (43')
Bell (39'), Burkardt (85'), Krauss (90'), Barkok (90+2')
> Preview
May 27, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
Dortmund
2-2
Mainz
Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')
> Preview
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
> Preview
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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