MX23RW : Monday, March 10 11:28:04| >> :300:86500:86500:
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 24
Mar 1, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Mainz logo

RB Leipzig
1 - 2
Mainz

Simons (1')
Haidara (52')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Amiri (52'), Burkardt (58')
Maloney (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: RB Leipzig 1-0 Wolfsburg
Wednesday, February 26 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Mainz 2-0 St Pauli
Saturday, February 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 1-1 Mainz 05

Leipzig have rarely been beaten at home, and it would be surprising if they lost on Saturday given their strong record at Red Bull Arena. However, after a midweek match in the DFB-Pokal, Mainz could be more energetic and will feel they can at least avoid defeat against their hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw has a probability of 22.9% and a win for Mainz 05 has a probability of 21.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.82%), while for a Mainz 05 win it is 0-1 (5.95%).

Result
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
55.2% (0.036999999999999 0.04) 22.93% (0.189 0.19) 21.88% (-0.224 -0.22)
Both teams to score 54.75% (-0.933 -0.93)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.93% (-1.093 -1.09)45.07% (1.094 1.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.59% (-1.056 -1.06)67.41% (1.058 1.06)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.81% (-0.371 -0.37)16.19% (0.373 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.32% (-0.682 -0.68)45.68% (0.684 0.68)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.33% (-0.819 -0.82)34.67% (0.82 0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.6% (-0.881 -0.88)71.4% (0.881 0.88)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 55.19%
    Mainz 05 21.88%
    Draw 22.92%
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 10.22% (0.346 0.35)
2-1 @ 9.86% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.3% (0.201 0.2)
3-1 @ 5.98% (-0.08 -0.08)
3-0 @ 5.65% (0.051 0.05)
3-2 @ 3.17% (-0.115 -0.12)
4-1 @ 2.72% (-0.072 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.57% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.44% (-0.071 -0.07)
5-1 @ 0.99% (-0.039 -0.04)
5-0 @ 0.94% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 55.19%
1-1 @ 10.82% (0.13 0.13)
0-0 @ 5.61% (0.259 0.26)
2-2 @ 5.22% (-0.121 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.066 -0.07)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 22.92%
0-1 @ 5.95% (0.147 0.15)
1-2 @ 5.74% (-0.058999999999999 -0.06)
0-2 @ 3.15% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.03% (-0.067 -0.07)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.086 -0.09)
0-3 @ 1.11% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 21.88%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Mainz

RB Leipzig
57.9%
Draw
36.8%
Mainz 05
5.3%
38
Head to Head
Oct 19, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Mainz
0-2
RB Leipzig

Nebel (90+1')
Simons (20'), Orban (37')
Haidara (53'), Vermeeren (60'), Elmas (89')
Mar 30, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 27
RB Leipzig
0-0
Mainz
Lukeba (67'), Simons (86')
Caci (20'), Mwene (27'), Amiri (34'), Barreiro (70'), Hanche-Olsen (79')
Nov 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 10
Mainz
2-0
RB Leipzig
Jae-sung (76'), Barreiro (80')
Caci (39'), Barkok (88'), van den Berg (90')
Apr 1, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 26
RB Leipzig
0-3
Mainz
Ingvartsen (9'), Ajorque (57'), Kohr (67')
Oct 8, 2022 2.30pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316


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