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Bundesliga | Gameweek 26
Apr 1, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Mainz logo

RB Leipzig
0 - 3
Mainz


Kampl (37'), Olmo (65'), Orban (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ingvartsen (9'), Ajorque (57'), Kohr (67')
Caci (61'), Ingvartsen (64'), Hanche-Olsen (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Freiburg
Sunday, March 19 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Mainz 05

Leipzig have been extremely consistent at the Red Bull Arena during Rose's tenure, and we expect them to deliver another home victory to potentially move into the top four on Saturday. However, Mainz have proven tough to beat throughout the majority of Svensson's two-year reign, and this weekend's meeting with Die Roten Bullen should prove no different even if they may fall short in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 61.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 17.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
61.87% (-0.186 -0.19) 20.4% (0.076999999999998 0.08) 17.72% (0.107 0.11)
Both teams to score 56.29% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.34% (-0.17599999999999 -0.18)39.66% (0.175 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.99% (-0.183 -0.18)62.01% (0.184 0.18)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.68% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)12.32% (0.105 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.88% (-0.222 -0.22)38.12% (0.221 0.22)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.2% (0.013999999999996 0.01)35.8% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.42% (0.015999999999998 0.02)72.57% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 61.87%
    Mainz 05 17.72%
    Draw 20.4%
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.67%
1-0 @ 9.24% (0.038 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.93% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.75% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.63% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.53% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.86% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.52% (-0.018 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.48% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 61.87%
1-1 @ 9.49% (0.042 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.1% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-0 @ 4.41% (0.036 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 20.4%
1-2 @ 4.87% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 4.53% (0.038 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.33% (0.021 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.75% (0.002 0)
1-3 @ 1.67% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 17.72%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Mainz

RB Leipzig
86.7%
Draw
10.0%
Mainz 05
3.3%
60
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2022 2.30pm
Jan 8, 2022 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
4-1
Mainz
Silva (21' pen., 61'), Szoboszlai (47'), Nkunku (58')
Jae-sung (57')
Jae-sung (16'), Bell (59')
Hack (19')
Aug 15, 2021 2.30pm
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
3-2
RB Leipzig
Niakhate (24', 35'), Barreiro (50')
Niakhate (40'), da Costa (75')
Adams (15'), Halstenberg (30')
Halstenberg (23'), Adams (70'), Orban (88'), Sorloth (90+2')
Sep 20, 2020 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
3-1
Mainz
Forsberg (17' pen.), Poulsen (21'), Haidara (51')
Poulsen (64')
Mateta (48')
Mateta (30'), Latza (58')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316


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