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Bundesliga
Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Nov 29, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Millerntor-Stadion

St Pauli
3 - 1
Holstein Kiel

Saliakas (25'), Guilavogui (56'), Eggestein (85')
Smith (38'), Afolayan (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Harres (90+1')
Rapp (0'), Holtby (23'), Machino (23'), Ivezic (27'), Becker (38'), Erras (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between St Pauli and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-0 St Pauli
Sunday, November 24 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Holstein Kiel 0-3 Mainz
Sunday, November 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: St Pauli 0-0 Holstein Kiel

 Neither side will want to overcommit, and this could lead to a stale and timid encounter on Friday despite the importance of the match. Additionally, St Pauli have struggled for goals while Holstein Kiel have been poor away from home, and it would not be surprising if the points were shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St PauliDrawHolstein Kiel
44.98% (-0.264 -0.26) 23.99% (0.032 0.03) 31.03% (0.232 0.23)
Both teams to score 59.71% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.58% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)42.41% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)64.82% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.93% (-0.126 -0.13)19.07% (0.126 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.33% (-0.20999999999999 -0.21)50.67% (0.211 0.21)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.78% (0.12599999999999 0.13)26.22% (-0.126 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.68% (0.169 0.17)61.32% (-0.169 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    St Pauli 44.98%
    Holstein Kiel 31.03%
    Draw 23.99%
St PauliDrawHolstein Kiel
2-1 @ 9.19% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
1-0 @ 8.29% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.86% (-0.043 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.08% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.79% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.1% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.57% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.41% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 44.98%
1-1 @ 11.09% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.52% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.99%
1-2 @ 7.42% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
0-1 @ 6.69% (0.036 0.04)
0-2 @ 4.48% (0.04 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.31% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.75% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 2% (0.025 0.03)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.014 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.92% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 31.03%

How you voted: St Pauli vs Holstein Kiel

St Pauli
50.0%
Draw
37.9%
Holstein Kiel
12.1%
66
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 23
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Machino (53'), Mees (65'), Bernhardsson (82')
Schulz (45')
Afolayan (11', 36'), Hartel (34'), Metcalfe (57')
Saliakas (90+4'), Hurzeler (90+5')
Sep 17, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 6
St Pauli
5-1
Holstein Kiel
Metcalfe (4'), Smith (7'), Afolayan (38'), Ritzka (69'), Hartel (90+3')
Hurzeler (0'), Smith (27'), Burchert (45+2'), Saad (49')
Holtby (50')
Porath (16'), Holtby (47'), Rothe (73')
May 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Skrzybski (28' pen.), Komenda (78'), Reese (90+3')
Becker (45+2'), Rapp (46'), Bartels (65'), Pichler (90+5'), Wahl (90+9')
Afolayan (39'), Wahl (53' og.), Daschner (61'), Paqarada (74')
Hurzeler (0'), Afolayan (77')
Afolayan (87')
Nov 8, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 16
St Pauli
0-0
Holstein Kiel
Dec 17, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 18
Holstein Kiel
3-0
St Pauli
Bartels (8'), Porath (29'), Pichler (45+1')
Thesker (56'), Arp (90')

Ziereis (56'), Paqarada (80'), Dittgen (86'), Ole Becker (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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