Two League One sides meet in the third round of the EFL Trophy as Charlton Athletic welcome MK Dons to The Valley on Tuesday evening.
Both sides narrowly scraped through their second round matches and are separated by just six points in the third tier.
Match preview
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After a strong run of four consecutive victories in all competitions, Charlton have suffered back-to-back losses in their last two matches.
Affected by postponements like many others, the Addicks had to wait until New Year's Day to attempt to bounce back from their 1-0 loss to Plymouth Argyle back on December 18.
They would fall to the same scoreline, however, with Sam Vokes's 35th-minute goal proving to be enough to secure the win for Wycombe Wanderers which saw Charlton fall into the bottom half of the table.
The appointment of Johnnie Jackson has certainly helped turn the club's fortunes around, but they must ensure their good run of form was not just a 'new manager bounce'.
Progression to the next round of the EFL Trophy would be a good way to prove that is not the case and rediscover the feel-good feeling that was around the club in early December.
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After MK Dons saw their home encounter with Cheltenham Town postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak among the visitors' squad, they had a few extra days to rest and prepare for their meeting with relegation-threatened Gillingham on New Year's Day.
The Dons were unable to capitalise on that, however, being held to a 0-0 stalemate with neither side able to find the quality required to make the breakthrough.
Finding the back of the net has rarely been an issue this campaign for Liam Manning's side - they have scored 42 goals in 23 matches to this point, which is the third highest in the division, behind only the top two of Sunderland and Rotherham United who have also played one game more.
Their only other goalless draw of the season was, in fact, during the last round of the EFL Trophy, where they required penalties to see off League Two Leyton Orient.
Manning will be hoping that they can put the goal-shy nature of their most recent match in both this competition and the league behind them on Tuesday.
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Team News
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Charlton will still be without midfielder Jake Forster-Caskey who continues to recover from a cruciate ligament injury, as well as Adam Matthews, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Sam Lavelle who have all returned to training but are not ready to start just yet.
Akin Famewo and Deji Elerewe both picked up injuries just before Christmas and are also expected to miss out.
However, Conor Washington was able to return to the starting XI in the game against Wycombe, as part of a front two alongside Josh Davison.
MK Dons forward Max Watters has returned to his parent club Cardiff City after the Welsh club activated a clause in his loan agreement.
That meant a front three of Scott Twine, Mohamed Eisa and Tottenham Hotspur-loanee Troy Parrott, who forced his way into the first XI ahead of Hiram Boateng against Gillingham but may now return to the bench after the disappointing 0-0.
Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
MacGillivray; Clare, Pearce, Famewo; Jaiyesimi, Gilby, Dobson, Lee, Souare; Stockley, Washington
MK Dons possible starting lineup:
Fisher; O'Hora, Darling, Lewington; Kioso, McEachran, O'Riley, Harvie; Boateng, Twine, Eisa
We say: Charlton Athletic 1-2 MK Dons
MK Dons just about have the better recent form in this fixture, having taken three wins to Charlton's two in their last six meetings. The game could easily go either way - especially with the wildcard of cup football - but we are backing the Dons to edge this one and condemn the home side to a third consecutive loss.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 52.02%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 24.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Charlton Athletic in this match.
