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CONCACAF Nations League | League B
Sep 7, 2023 at 11pm UK
Football federation training ground
Saint Lucia national football team

Sint Maarten
1 - 5
St Lucia

Amatkarijo (51')
Kerssies (15')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Poleon (45', 48', 89'), Hackett (57'), Stanislas (75')
Coverage of the CONCACAF Nations League League B clash between Sint Maarten and Saint Lucia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sint Maarten

All competitions
Last Game: US Virgin Islands 1-2 Sint Maarten
Wednesday, March 29 at 12am in CONCACAF Nations League

Saint Lucia

All competitions
Last Game: St Lucia 3-1 Dominica
Tuesday, March 28 at 12am in CONCACAF Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Sint Maarten had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.06%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Sint Maarten win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.

Result
Sint MaartenDrawSaint Lucia
30.36% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03) 23.64% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 45.99% (0.052 0.05)
Both teams to score 60.56% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.86% (0.073999999999998 0.07)41.14% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.47% (0.075000000000003 0.08)63.53% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Sint Maarten Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.98% (0.015000000000001 0.02)26.01% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.96% (0.020000000000003 0.02)61.04% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Saint Lucia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.85% (0.051999999999992 0.05)18.15% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.88% (0.086000000000006 0.09)49.12% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Score Analysis
    Sint Maarten 30.36%
    Saint Lucia 45.99%
    Draw 23.64%
Sint MaartenDrawSaint Lucia
2-1 @ 7.3% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.36% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-0 @ 4.28% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.28% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.8% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 1.92% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 1.1%
4-2 @ 0.94% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 30.36%
1-1 @ 10.84% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.72% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.59% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 23.64%
1-2 @ 9.26% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 8.06% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.88%
1-3 @ 5.27% (0.011 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.91% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.55% (0.008 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.25% (0.008 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.67% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.51% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 45.99%

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