Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 24, 2024 at 11pm UK

NRG Stadium

Colombia
2 - 1
Paraguay

Munoz (32'), Lerma (42')
Lerma (14')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Enciso (69')
Velazquez (53'), Cubas (78'), Oscar Garnero (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Copa America clash between Colombia and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions

Last Game: Colombia 3-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 15 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Paraguay

All competitions

Last Game: Panama 0-1 Paraguay
Sunday, June 16 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

We said: Colombia 1-0 Paraguay

The Colombians are just as sharp defensively as Paraguay, and we believe their experience and momentum will be enough to grind out a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 21.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
Colombia	Draw	Paraguay
50.42% ( -0.02)	27.69% ( 0.05)	21.89% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 41.35% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.28% (

-0.19)

62.72% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.73% (

-0.14)

82.26% (

0.14)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.8% (

-0.1)

25.2% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.07% (

-0.13)

59.93% (

0.13)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.28% (

-0.15)

44.72% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.29% (

-0.12)

80.71% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Colombia 50.41%

Paraguay 21.89%

Draw 27.69%

Colombia	Draw	Paraguay
1-0 @ 15.53% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.7% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.03% Total : 50.41%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.26% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.46% Total : 27.69%	0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 21.89%