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Athletic Bilbao logo
Copa del Rey | Round of 16
Jan 16, 2024 at 8pm UK
San Mames Barria
Alaves logo

Athletic Bilbao
2 - 0
Alaves

Villalibre (28', 60')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Benavidez (71'), Marin (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa del Rey clash between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad
Saturday, January 13 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Alaves

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Sevilla 2-3 Alaves
Friday, January 12 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Alaves

 While Alaves have put together a run for form to start the new year, they face their biggest challenge yet as they go up against a high-flying Bilbao side who have won their last five matches across all competitions. Valverde's side are unbeaten at home since losing to Real Madrid in August's La Liga opener and we are tipping them to come away with another victory in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 59.55%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 16.61%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.29%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAlaves
59.55% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04) 23.83% (0.016999999999999 0.02) 16.61% (0.02 0.02)
Both teams to score 43.49%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.37% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)55.62% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.22% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)76.78% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.54% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)18.46% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.35% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)49.64% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Alaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.33% (0.012999999999998 0.01)46.67% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.76% (0.010000000000002 0.01)82.23% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 59.54%
    Alaves 16.61%
    Draw 23.83%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAlaves
1-0 @ 14.55%
2-0 @ 12.29% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.37% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 6.93% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.28% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.93% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 59.54%
1-1 @ 11.09% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.61% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.57% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.55%
Total : 23.83%
0-1 @ 6.56% (0.008 0.01)
1-2 @ 4.23% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 2.5% (0.004 0)
1-3 @ 1.07% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 0.91%
Other @ 1.34%
Total : 16.61%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves

Athletic Bilbao
93.9%
Draw
1.5%
Alaves
4.5%
66
Head to Head
Sep 22, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 6
Alaves
0-2
Athletic Bilbao

Kike (45+1'), Garcia (61'), Abqar (78')
Williams (18'), Sancet (76')
Berenguer (29'), Berchiche (31')
> Preview
Jan 9, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 20
Alaves
0-0
Athletic Bilbao
Lejeune (26'), Duarte (61')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 8
Athletic Bilbao
1-0
Alaves
Garcia (44')
Vencedor (38'), Berenguer (40'), Garcia (73')

Navarro (8'), Pina (84')
> Preview
Apr 10, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 30
Athletic Bilbao
0-0
Alaves
Vesga (2'), Capa (90+1')
Lejeune (46'), Garcia (90+2')
> Preview
Oct 4, 2020 1pm
Gameweek 5
Alaves
1-0
Athletic Bilbao
Ely (74')
Duarte (85')
Duarte (86')

Garcia (19'), Nunez (62'), Martinez (64')
> Preview
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