The last time the two sides met, it ended in a 4-4 draw back in 2019 in Serie B, and even though both sides recorded big wins in the first round, any sort of repeat looks unlikely. Not many league places separate the sides, despite them being in different divisions, but Spezia's top-flight quality may just be enough to see off a Brescia side struggling for confidence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Brescia
34.47% ( 0)	24.58% ( 0)	40.95% ( -0)

Both teams to score 58.91% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.98% (

-0)

44.02% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.6% (

-0)

66.4% (

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.09% (

24.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.46%

59.54% (

Brescia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.46% (

-0)

21.54% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.39% (

-0)

54.61% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Spezia 34.47%

Brescia 40.95%

Draw 24.57%

Spezia	Draw	Brescia
2-1 @ 7.96% 1-0 @ 7.46% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.18% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.69% 3-2 @ 2.83% 3-0 @ 2.4% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.28% 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.7% Total : 34.47%	1-1 @ 11.44% 2-2 @ 6.11% 0-0 @ 5.37% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.57%	1-2 @ 8.79% 0-1 @ 8.24% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.32% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.5% 0-3 @ 3.24% 2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.73% 0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.56% Total : 40.95%