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Walsall
Championship header 2

League Two
Crewe Alexandra
League Two | Gameweek 24
Jan 1, 2025 at 3pm UK
Alexandra Stadium
Carlisle United

Crewe
3 - 2
Carlisle

Long (32'), Bogle (90+3'), Lankester (90+8')
Williams (35'), Knight-Lebel (86'), Conway (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ellis (21'), Harris (78')
Lavelle (8'), Neal (53'), Breeze (84'), Biggins (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's League Two clash between Crewe Alexandra and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Crewe
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 2-1 Accrington
Sunday, December 29 at 12.30pm in League Two

We said: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Carlisle United

 Crewe have stayed undefeated on home soil since losing 5-0 to Chesterfield on August 17, although they have been held to four draws in the subsequent nine matches, including the previous two against Bradford City (1-1) and Colchester United (0-0). Despite their propensity for the odd stalemate, Bell's side should eke out a marginal win over second-bottom Carlisle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.

Result
Crewe AlexandraDrawCarlisle United
39.91% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02) 27.46% (0.0069999999999979 0.01) 32.63% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Both teams to score 49% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.45% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)56.55% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.46% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)77.54% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.29% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)27.71% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.72% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)63.27% (0.031000000000006 0.03)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.78% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)32.22% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.29% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)68.71% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Score Analysis
    Crewe Alexandra 39.9%
    Carlisle United 32.63%
    Draw 27.45%
Crewe AlexandraDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 11.45%
2-1 @ 8.33% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 7.35% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.56% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 3.15% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.14% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.01% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 39.9%
1-1 @ 12.97%
0-0 @ 8.93% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 27.45%
0-1 @ 10.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.35% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 5.73% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-3 @ 2.78%
0-3 @ 2.16% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.78% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 32.63%

How you voted: Crewe vs Carlisle

Crewe Alexandra
88.9%
Draw
5.6%
Carlisle United
5.6%
18
Head to Head
Nov 30, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 18
Carlisle
1-1
Crewe
Sadi (2')
Harris (64'), Jones (72'), Kelly (81'), Neal (89')
Lankester (82' pen.)
Connolly (11'), Billington (12')
> Preview
Dec 29, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 24
Crewe
0-3
Carlisle
Feeney (6'), Moxon (46'), Dennis (72')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 12
Carlisle
0-0
Crewe
Jan 1, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 25
Crewe
4-1
Carlisle
Ainley (17'), Powell (26', 31'), Anene (34')
Dale (72')
Iredale (56')
Sagaf (24'), Loft (30')
Oct 12, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 13
Carlisle
2-4
Crewe
Hope (59'), Elliott (64')
Hunt (7'), Powell (27'), Porter (78'), Gethin (85' og.)
Nolan (86')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall28185554302459
2Doncaster RoversDoncaster29157742321052
3Notts County28148645281750
4AFC Wimbledon27146739201948
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe291212536251148
6Port Vale2813963529648
7Bradford CityBradford28138738281047
8Salford City2812883326744
9Grimsby Town29133134045-542
10Chesterfield28109943321139
11MK Dons28115124240238
12Cheltenham TownCheltenham28108103739-238
13Colchester UnitedColchester2881373329437
14Swindon TownSwindon30910114344-137
15Fleetwood TownFleetwood279993735236
16Bromley2881193637-135
17Gillingham2795132529-432
18BarrowBarrow2887132732-531
19Newport CountyNewport2786133546-1130
20Harrogate TownHarrogate3086162541-1630
21Accrington StanleyAccrington2778123445-1129
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2868142146-2526
23Morecambe2865172644-1823
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2856172246-2421
> League Two Full Table


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