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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 51.62%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
Result | ||
NAC Breda | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
51.62% ( -0.4) | 22.95% ( 0.16) | 25.43% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 58.97% ( -0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.53% ( -0.5) | 41.47% ( 0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.13% ( -0.5) | 63.87% ( 0.5) |
NAC Breda Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.84% ( -0.32) | 16.16% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.4% ( -0.59) | 45.61% ( 0.59) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.34% ( -0.07) | 29.66% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.29% ( -0.09) | 65.71% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
NAC Breda | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 7.96% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.47% Total : 51.62% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.95% | 1-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.19% Total : 25.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |