Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 69.06%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 13.87%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.05%) and 1-3 (7.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for a Willem II win it was 2-1 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
