Portugal are unlikely to be at full-strength for this match, but Martinez has such a talented squad, and the players that come in will be desperate to impress the manager. Bosnia-Herzegovina are capable of picking up a positive result here, but we are backing the visitors to shade Monday's contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 43.78%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 28.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.66%) and 1-2 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 1-0 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.06) 
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