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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Croatia national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 21, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Education City Stadium
Armenia national football team

Croatia
1 - 0
Armenia

Budimir (43')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Piloyan (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Croatia and Armenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Latvia 0-2 Croatia
Saturday, November 18 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group D Standings P GD PTS
1Turkey7716
2Croatia7813
3Wales7011
4Armenia7-18
5Latvia8-143

Armenia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Armenia 1-1 Wales
Saturday, November 18 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group D Standings P GD PTS
1Turkey7716
2Croatia7813
3Wales7011
4Armenia7-18
5Latvia8-143

We said: Croatia 2-1 Armenia

 Although Armenia have little left to play for, the former Soviet nation have proven themselves tough opponents throughout much of their Group D campaign, and Croatia only won September's reverse fixture by a single goal. After losing for the first time at home in European Championship qualifying last month, the home side will be keen to reach Euro 2024 in style - but it may be a closer call than many observers expect. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 72.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 10.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Armenia win it was 0-1 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.

Result
CroatiaDrawArmenia
72.71% (-0.226 -0.23) 16.5% (0.112 0.11) 10.78% (0.111 0.11)
Both teams to score 50.97% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.84% (-0.215 -0.22)37.16% (0.215 0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.64% (-0.23099999999999 -0.23)59.36% (0.232 0.23)
Croatia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.1% (-0.10600000000001 -0.11)8.89% (0.1049 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.59% (-0.255 -0.25)30.4% (0.254 0.25)
Armenia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.95% (0.061 0.06)44.05% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.83% (0.050999999999998 0.05)80.16% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Croatia 72.7%
    Armenia 10.78%
    Draw 16.5%
CroatiaDrawArmenia
2-0 @ 11.46%
1-0 @ 9.48% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.4% (0.022 0.02)
3-0 @ 9.25% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-1 @ 7.59% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-0 @ 5.6% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 4.59% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.11% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
5-0 @ 2.71% (-0.038 -0.04)
5-1 @ 2.22% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.88% (-0.01 -0.01)
6-0 @ 1.09% (-0.021 -0.02)
5-2 @ 0.91% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 72.7%
1-1 @ 7.77% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.041 0.04)
2-2 @ 3.86% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 16.5%
0-1 @ 3.21% (0.038 0.04)
1-2 @ 3.19% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 1.32% (0.018 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.05% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 10.78%

How you voted: Croatia vs Armenia

Croatia
80.6%
Draw
13.0%
Armenia
6.5%
108
Head to Head
Sep 11, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Armenia
0-1
Croatia
Kramaric (13')
Gvardiol (21'), Stanisic (29')
> Preview
Jun 1, 2021 5pm
Friendlies 1
Croatia
1-1
Armenia
Perisic (24')
Rebic (53')
Angulo (72')
Terteryan (39')
> Preview
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