Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Wembley Stadium
England3 - 1Italy
Reaction
Harry Kane breaks Sir Bobby Charlton record in Italy triumph
Harry Kane breaks an England goalscoring record set by Sir Bobby Charlton as the Three Lions overcome Italy 3-1 to qualify for Euro 2024.
Oct 18, 08:15
Gareth Southgate hails England for topping "toughest qualifying group"
Gareth Southgate lavishes praise on England for coming through the "toughest" Euro 2024 qualifying group after their 3-1 beating of reigning champions Italy.
Oct 18, 08:34
The Match
Match Report
Harry Kane nets a brace either side of Marcus Rashford's effort as England overcome Italy 3-1 to qualify for Euro 2024.
Team News
Harry Maguire and Kalvin Phillips are named in England's starting lineup for tonight's Euro 2024 qualifier against Italy at Wembley Stadium.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between England and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how England could line up for Tuesday's Euro 2024 qualifier against Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: England 1-0 Australia
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Italy had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.
| Result | ||
| England | Draw | Italy |
55.66% ( 2.94) | 23.66% ( -0.56) | 20.68% ( -2.39) |
| Both teams to score 50.72% ( -1.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
