Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 9, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Tose Proeski Arena

N. Macedonia
1 - 1
Italy

Bardhi (81')
Manev (68'), Alimi (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Immobile (47')
Dimarco (70'), Tonali (75'), Zaniolo (79')

New Italy boss Luciano Spalletti reacts to 'suffering messy' North Macedonia draw

New Italy boss Luciano Spalletti encourages his players to "find improvements" after being held to a "messy" 1-1 draw by North Macedonia in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Sep 10, 00:32

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between North Macedonia and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Saturday's Euro 2024 qualifying Group C clash with North Macedonia.

Form, Standings, Stats

North Macedonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: England 7-0 N. Macedonia
Monday, June 19 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	4	14	12
2	Ukraine	3	0	6
3	Italy	2	1	3
4	North Macedonia	3	-7	3
5	Malta	4	-8	0

Italy

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Netherlands 2-3 Italy
Sunday, June 18 at 2pm in Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	4	14	12
2	Ukraine	3	0	6
3	Italy	2	1	3
4	North Macedonia	3	-7	3
5	Malta	4	-8	0

We said: North Macedonia 0-2 Italy

A winning start to Spalletti's reign surely awaits a transitioning Italy side this weekend, with North Macedonia still reeling from their England embarrassment and the ongoing row between manager and absent captain. The reigning European champions should not score goals for fun in Skopje as they find their feet under the ex-Napoli boss, but they have the defensive nous required to shut out their hosts, whose star striker Trajkovski is lacking match practice. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for North Macedonia had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest North Macedonia win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.

Result
North Macedonia	Draw	Italy
36.09% ( 0.16)	26.27% ( -0.22)	37.64% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 53.3% (

0.72)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.65% (

0.91)

51.35% (

-0.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.83% (

0.79)

73.17% (

-0.79)

North Macedonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.56% (

0.53)

27.43% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.08% (

0.68)

62.92% (

-0.68)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.46% (

0.46)

26.54% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.25% (

0.61)

61.75% (

-0.61)

Score Analysis

North Macedonia 36.09%

Italy 37.64%

Draw 26.27%

North Macedonia	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.96% Total : 36.09%	1-1 @ 12.49% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.27%	0-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 8.29% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 37.64%