We said: Italy 2-1 Ukraine
Italy would have been disappointed to miss out on all three points on Saturday, but we think that they will channel that frustration into motivation for Tuesday's contest, where we believe that they will make full use of home advantage to claim their second win of the qualifying campaign.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.
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