Euro 2024

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 15, 2024 at 8pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Italy
2 - 1
Albania

Bastoni (11'), Barella (16')
Pellegrini (22'), Calafiori (51')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Bajrami (1')
Broja (51'), Hoxha (74')

Albania's Nedim Bajrami breaks European Championship record with goal in Italy clash

Nedim Bajrami breaks a European Championship record after scoring in Albania's Euro 2024 Group B opener against Italy at Westfalenstadion on Saturday night.

Jun 15, 21:31

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Last Game: Italy 1-0 Bosnia H'vina
Sunday, June 9 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	0	0	0
2	Spain	0	0	0
3	Croatia	0	0	0
4	Albania	0	0	0

Albania

All competitions

Last Game: Albania 3-1 Azerbaijan
Friday, June 7 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	0	0	0
2	Spain	0	0	0
3	Croatia	0	0	0
4	Albania	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Albania had a probability of 21.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for an Albania win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	Albania
54.77% ( -0.02)	23.83%	21.39% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 51.2% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.55% (

0.02)

49.44% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.51% (

0.02)

71.48% (

-0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.06% (

-0)

17.93% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.25% (

-0)

48.75% (

Albania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.39% (

0.03)

37.6% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.61% (

0.03)

74.38% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Italy 54.76%

Albania 21.39%

Draw 23.83%

Italy	Draw	Albania
1-0 @ 11.58% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.96% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.74% 3-0 @ 5.71% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.58% 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.45% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 54.76%	1-1 @ 11.33% 0-0 @ 6.74% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.83%	0-1 @ 6.6% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.54% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.23% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.62% Total : 21.39%